Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.
• Interior Arizona and Rio Grande corridor reservoir levels continue to fall.
• Current storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead storage is well below average and is expected to decline through the summer months.
Precipitation – The summer monsoon arrived late in the Southwest. Thus far, summer precipitation has been well below average across most of New Mexico and parts of Arizona. June storms helped eastern New Mexico.
Temperature – Temperatures have been about average across most of the Southwest during the past month.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the summer months, but only slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across western and southern Arizona for the fall and early winter. An experimental monsoon forecast shows good chances for above-average precipitation during the heart of the monsoon season.
El Niño – Forecasts indicate a 40 percent chance, at best, of the development of El Niño (wet Southwest) this winter.
The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest for the foreseeable future.