Southwest Climate Outlook July 2004

Date issued

Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.

• Interior Arizona and Rio Grande corridor reservoir levels continue to fall.

• Current storage in Lake Powell and Lake Mead storage is well below average and is expected to decline through the summer months.

Precipitation – The summer monsoon arrived late in the Southwest. Thus far, summer precipitation has been well below average across most of New Mexico and parts of Arizona. June storms helped eastern New Mexico.

Temperature – Temperatures have been about average across most of the Southwest during the past month.

Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the summer months, but only slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across western and southern Arizona for the fall and early winter. An experimental monsoon forecast shows good chances for above-average precipitation during the heart of the monsoon season.

El Niño – Forecasts indicate a 40 percent chance, at best, of the development of El Niño (wet Southwest) this winter.

The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest for the foreseeable future.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.