Southwest Climate Outlook July 2003

Date issued

Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought will continue to be a major concern for the Southwest during the upcoming months.

•Most New Mexico river basins remain in emergency drought status.

•Current storage has continued to decrease in many Arizona reservoirs.

Precipitation – Summer monsoon rainfall has arrived in parts of the Southwest. The monsoon arrived late, bringing lower than average precipitation thus far. On average, late monsoons bring lower than average summer total precipitation.

Fire – Fire danger is above average across all of Arizona and western New Mexico, especially at elevations lower than 8,500 feet. However, the arrival of summer monsoon rainfall will ease fire danger.

Range Conditions – New Mexico and Arizona continue to have the poorest range and pasture conditions (relative to state averages) in the United States.

Temperature Forecasts – Seasonal temperature forecasts indicate increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and New Mexico until at least the end of 2003.

ENSO – Sea surface temperatures have increased in the central equatorial Pacific Ocean and ENSO conditions are now neutral. The chances of La Niña developing by the end of the year are less than 50%.

The Bottom line - Hydrological drought will continue in the Southwest during the next several months.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.