Southwest Climate Outlook January 2006

Date issued

January Climate Summary
Drought – Severe drought conditions now exist in southeast Arizona and southwest New Mexico. Drought or abnormally dry conditions have expanded to include nearly all of the Southwest, except for extreme northwestern Arizona.
• Drought conditions are expected to intensify throughout most of the Southwest, due to recent warmer and much drier-than-average conditions.
• The lack of snowpack in most of the river basins in Arizona and southern New Mexico has led to a streamflow forecast of well below average.
• Drought conditions are improved from last year, but many important reservoirs in New Mexico remain below average.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005, temperatures over most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Almost all of the Southwest has been drier than average since the start of the water year, especially during the last two months.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures through July, and below-average precipitation through May.
El Niño – La Niña or ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to prevail over the next three to six months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist or intensify over most of the Southwest except for far western Arizona.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.