Southwest Climate Outlook August 2007

August Climate Summary
Drought – Drought conditions remain at moderate to severe levels across Arizona
again this month while most of New Mexico remains drought free. Summer rainfall
has improved conditions in eastern Arizona, while below-average precipitation
across eastern New Mexico raises the threat of drought conditions potentially developing
over coming months.
Temperature – Temperatures were generally near average across Arizona while
much of New Mexico was 2–4 degrees above average.
Precipitation – Much of Arizona has seen average to above-average precipitation
over the past thirty days, while New Mexico generally saw below-average rainfall.
Many upper elevation stations in Arizona have recorded 150–200 percent of average
precipitation for the period.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts remain confident that much of Arizona
and southwestern New Mexico will see above-average temperatures through the remainder
of the summer into the fall. Seasonal precipitation forecasts are calling for
below-average precipitation for both Arizona and New Mexico through the fall into
next winter due to stronger confidence in the development of La Niña conditions.
The Bottom Line – Summer monsoon rainfall has been widespread across Arizona
and has helped improve short-term drought conditions. Below-average rainfall has
started to impact portions of central and eastern New Mexico, raising the threat
of drought conditions potentially developing over coming months in these areas.
Stronger signals of a developing La Niña event are emerging in the equatorial Pacific
Ocean, leading to forecasts for below-average precipitation across the Southwest
through the upcoming fall and winter seasons.