Southwest Climate Outlook August 2006

Date issued

August Climate Summary
Drought – The monsoon rains have brought some drought relief to the Southwest, but
the relief is likely to be temporary due to long-term moisture deficits.
• Drought conditions are expected to improve in the short-term in New Mexico
and Arizona.
• Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico have declined since this time last year.
Fire Danger – Heavy rainfall and high humidities since the start of the monsoon season
have reduced the fire danger considerably, virtually ending the active fire season.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005, temperatures over
most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Since the start of the monsoon season precipitation has been above
average across most of the Southwest. Heavy rainfall has caused extensive flooding in
many areas in Arizona and New Mexico.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average temperatures
and equal chances of precipitation through November 2006.
El Niño – ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue through February 2007.
The Bottom Line – Some drought relief has occurred due to the abundant rain since
the start of the monsoon season, but that relief may be limited to short-term impacts
due to the accumulated effects of long-term, multiyear precipitation deficits.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.