Southwest Climate Outlook August 2005

Date issued

July Climate Summary
– Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought continue in eastern
and northern Arizona and in much of New Mexico.
• Moderate drought was reintroduced to southern New Mexico.
• Most regional reservoirs decreased in storage since the end of June, but
they remain above last year’s levels.
– Average temperatures during the water year range from 3–4 degrees
Fahrenheit below average to 3–4 degrees above average. The past 30 days were gen
erally near to below average.
– Much of the Southwest has received near to above-average pre
cipitation during the water year. Precipitation departures in the past 30 days have
ranged from 2 percent to over 400 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts
– The long-lead temperature outlooks indicate increased chances
of warmer-than-average conditions in the Southwest. There are generally no fore
casted precipitation anomalies through February 2006 in the region.
El Niño
– Probabilistic forecasts call for the current neutral El Niño-Southern Os
cillation conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean to remain dominant through the
middle of 2006.
The Bottom Line
– Experts expect monsoonal precipitation to provide at least limited short-term improvement to drought conditions in Arizona and New Mexico

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.