Southwest Climate Outlook August 2005

July Climate Summary
Drought
– Abnormally dry conditions to moderate drought continue in eastern
and northern Arizona and in much of New Mexico.
• Moderate drought was reintroduced to southern New Mexico.
• Most regional reservoirs decreased in storage since the end of June, but
they remain above last year’s levels.
Temperature
– Average temperatures during the water year range from 3–4 degrees
Fahrenheit below average to 3–4 degrees above average. The past 30 days were gen
-
erally near to below average.
Precipitation
– Much of the Southwest has received near to above-average pre
-
cipitation during the water year. Precipitation departures in the past 30 days have
ranged from 2 percent to over 400 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts
– The long-lead temperature outlooks indicate increased chances
of warmer-than-average conditions in the Southwest. There are generally no fore
-
casted precipitation anomalies through February 2006 in the region.
El Niño
– Probabilistic forecasts call for the current neutral El Niño-Southern Os
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cillation conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean to remain dominant through the
middle of 2006.
The Bottom Line
– Experts expect monsoonal precipitation to provide at least limited short-term improvement to drought conditions in Arizona and New Mexico