Southwest Climate Outlook August 2004

Date issued

August 2004 Climate Summary

Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues for much of the Southwest.
• Storage has decreased in many reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico.
• Lake Powell and Lake Mead are at their lowest levels in over 30 years.
• Far eastern New Mexico is no longer in short-term drought.
Precipitation – Precipitation for the water year remains below 90 percent of average through mid-August for much of the Southwest. Eastern New Mexico experienced wetter-than-average conditions over the past 45 days.
Temperature – New Mexico and eastern Arizona have been generally cooler than average over the past 30 days. Temperatures for the remainder of Arizona were slightly above average.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate slightly increased probabilities of above-average temperatures for the Southwest through January 2005. Climate forecasts are predicting slightly increased probability of wetter-than-average conditions for the Southwest during the winter.
El Niño – Conditions in the Pacific Ocean hint at the onset of a weak El Niño during the next several months.
The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in Arizona through late autumn, while parts of New Mexico may see limited improvement.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.