Southwest Climate Outlook April 2010

Date issued

April Climate Summary
Drought– Drought conditions improved slightly again this month across the Southwest with much of southern Arizona and New Mexico classified as abnormally dry or drought-free.
Temperature– Cooler-than-average temperatures prevailed across much of Arizona and New Mexico again this month.
Precipitation– Very little precipitation was observed across much of the Southwest over the past 30 days as passing storms brought mostly wind and cooler temperatures.
ENSO– El Niño has dramatically weakened over the past month, with ENSO-neutral conditions expected to return later this spring or early summer.
Climate Forecasts– Seasonal climate outlooks point towards an increased chance of above-average temperatures across Arizona and New Mexico for much of this upcoming summer and a slightly increased chance of below-average precipitation fornorthern Arizona during the summer monsoon season.
The Bottom Line– El Niño weakened its grip on the weather pattern across the western U.S. this past month, letting storms track a bit farther north and with less sub-tropical moisture than was typical earlier this winter. This left much of Arizona
and New Mexico to contend with dry, breezy, and cool conditions as late-season winter storms tracked north of the region, ushering in cool air. Even with the recent dry spell, short-term drought conditions continue to improve and snowpack levels
remain high with the promise of delivering above-average streamflows to most basins in Arizona and New Mexico. Updated forecasts point towards a warm and possibly drier-than-average summer season, which may impact how fast and far short-
term drought conditions continue to improve, especially across drought-stricken portions of northern Arizona.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.