Southwest Climate Outlook April 2006

April Climate Summary
Drought – Most of the Southwest remains in severe or extreme drought due to the
long-term precipitation deficits.
• Drought conditions are expected to persist throughout most of the Southwest.
Some improvement is expected in western New Mexico and southern
and eastern Arizona.
• The extremely low snowpack in most of the basins in Arizona and New
Mexico has led to a streamflow forecast of well below average for 2006.
• Reservoir conditions are improved from last year, but the large Colorado
River reservoirs and important New Mexico reservoirs remain below average.
Fire Danger – The long-term moisture deficits and the abundant fine dry fuels
point to a very active fire season from grassland into higher elevation timber.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures over
most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – Almost all of the Southwest has been drier than average since the
start of the water year, despite some rain and snow in March and April.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average
temperatures through September and equal chances of precipitation through June.
El Niño – Ongoing La Niña conditions are expected to continue over the next one
to three months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist over most of the Southwest. Hydrological
drought continues to affect streamflow and some large reservoir levels, and
agricultural drought conditions have persisted throughout the region.