Southwest Climate Outlook April 2005

Date issued

April Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought
– Drought impacts continue to ease in much of the
Much of western Arizona and a large portion of New Mexico are free of
Portions of northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico remain in
severe drought.
Arizona statewide reservoir storage is up 5 percent since last month. Storage in
New Mexico is much above last year, but many reservoirs remain below 35
percent of maximum capacity.
– Water year temperatures have been up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit
above average in some areas, but the past 30 days were generally cooler than average.
– The water year precipitation remains above average, but the past 30
days have been generally drier than average. Snow water content in northern New
Mexico is above average, while it continues a rapid decrease farther south.
Climate Forecasts
– Long-lead forecasts call for increased chances of above-average
temperatures in the Southwest. There are no forecasted precipitation anomalies in
Arizona or New Mexico through October. Streamflow forecasts show near to above-
average conditions for much of the Southwest and Colorado River Basin.
El Niño
– Neutral conditions have the highest probability of occurrence in the tropi
cal Pacific Ocean, although El Niño chances remains above average.
The Bottom Line
– Spring snowmelt will lead to increased runoff, above-average
streamflow, increasing reservoir storage, and a further alleviation of hydrologic
drought in the Southwest.

Published by the Climate Assessment for the Southwest (CLIMAS), with support from University of Arizona Cooperative Extension, the Arizona State Climate Office, and the New Mexico State Climate office.

Disclaimer. This packet contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials. The user assumes the entire risk related to the use of this data. CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at Arizona State University (ASU) disclaim any and all warranties, whether expressed or implied, including (without limitation) any implied warranties of merchantability or fitness for a particular purpose. In no event will CLIMAS, UA Cooperative Extension, and the State Climate Office at ASU or The University of Arizona be liable to you or to any third party for any direct, indirect, incidental, consequential, special or exemplary damages or lost profit resulting from any use or misuse of this data.