Southwest Climate Outlook April 2005

April Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought
– Drought impacts continue to ease in much of the
Southwest.
Much of western Arizona and a large portion of New Mexico are free of
drought.
Portions of northeastern Arizona and northwestern New Mexico remain in
severe drought.
Arizona statewide reservoir storage is up 5 percent since last month. Storage in
New Mexico is much above last year, but many reservoirs remain below 35
percent of maximum capacity.
Temperature
– Water year temperatures have been up to 3 degrees Fahrenheit
above average in some areas, but the past 30 days were generally cooler than average.
Precipitation
– The water year precipitation remains above average, but the past 30
days have been generally drier than average. Snow water content in northern New
Mexico is above average, while it continues a rapid decrease farther south.
Climate Forecasts
– Long-lead forecasts call for increased chances of above-average
temperatures in the Southwest. There are no forecasted precipitation anomalies in
Arizona or New Mexico through October. Streamflow forecasts show near to above-
average conditions for much of the Southwest and Colorado River Basin.
El Niño
– Neutral conditions have the highest probability of occurrence in the tropi
-
cal Pacific Ocean, although El Niño chances remains above average.
The Bottom Line
– Spring snowmelt will lead to increased runoff, above-average
streamflow, increasing reservoir storage, and a further alleviation of hydrologic
drought in the Southwest.