Southwest Climate Outlook October 2009 Water Year in Review

October Climate Summary
Drought– A weak monsoon season has caused drought to expand and worsen in Arizona; the entire state is now blanketed in drought conditions. Much of New Mexico, however, remains drought free due to near-average precipitation over the
past 30 days.
Temperature– The water year is off to a significantly cooler-than-average start in Arizona and northern New Mexico.
Precipitation– The summer dryness continued through the start of the water year.
ENSO– Weak to possibly moderate El Niño conditions are expected to persist through the fall and early winter seasons, bringing increased chances for above-average precipitation across southern Arizona and New Mexico.
Climate Forecasts– Forecasts call for slightly increased chances of above-average temperatures in most of the Southwest throughout the fall and into winter. Precipitation forecasts indicate slightly increased chances of wetter conditions throughout
the southern portion of the region into spring.
The Bottom Line– The hot and dry summer monsoon has been nicknamed the “non-soon” in reference to the scant rains it delivered. As a result, drought conditions have spread to every corner of Arizona, causing poor ranchland conditions
and forcing many ranchers to sell livestock, among other impacts. While El Niño is partly to blame for the lack of summer rains, it may also bring wetter-than-average conditions to parts of the Southwest, particularly the southern portions.