Southwest Climate Outlook September 2007

September Climate Summary
Drought – There has been little change in drought conditions across Arizona since
last month. Moderate to severe drought continues across much of the state with
west-central areas experiencing the worst conditions. Most of New Mexico remains
drought free, but central and northeastern parts of the state are being monitored for
developing drought conditions due to several months of below-average precipitation.
Temperature – Temperatures were generally above-average across both Arizona and
New Mexico. Most locations observed monthly average temperatures that were 2–5
degrees F above average.
Precipitation – Precipitation amounts were spotty across Arizona over the past
thirty days, but generally below average. Most locations saw less than 75 percent
of average precipitation for the period. Portions of southwestern and north-central
New Mexico observed 100–200 percent of average precipitation over the same period.
Central and northeastern New Mexico saw much below-average precipitation.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts continue to predict above-average
temperatures across Arizona and New Mexico through the fall and into the winter
season. The precipitation outlook also continues to paint Arizona and New Mexico
with a below-average fall and winter precipitation forecast due to developing La
Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean.
The Bottom Line – Waning monsoon precipitation over the past month has done
little to improve drought conditions across Arizona, while another month of below-
average precipitation across portions of New Mexico is prompting concern
about drought conditions developing. The continuation of above-average temperatures
and a developing La Niña event could mean more dry and warm conditions
through the fall and into the winter season.