Southwest Climate Outlook July 2007

July Climate Summary
Drought – Drought conditions remain at moderate to severe levels across Arizona
again this month while most of New Mexico remains drought free. Extreme
drought conditions have grown to include the western third of Arizona with decreasing
intensity eastward into New Mexico.
Temperature – Above-average temperatures dominated most of Arizona again this
month with some locations reporting departures of 6–8 degrees F. New Mexico was
generally near-average with far eastern sections slightly below-average.
Precipitation – Precipitation was spotty in New Mexico over the past thirty days
with locations in northeastern and southeastern portions of the state reporting 150–
400 percent of average. Many other locations saw only 25–50 percent of average
precipitation. Arizona was below-average once again, with most locations reporting
less than 75 percent of average.
Climate Forecasts – Temperature forecasts remain confident that much of Arizona
and eastern New Mexico will see above-average temperatures throughout the summer.
Seasonal precipitation forecasts reflect ‘equal-chances’ through October while
the November–January period introduces a slight shift towards a higher chance of
drier conditions for southern New Mexico and Arizona.
The Bottom Line – A slow start to the monsoon and above-average temperatures
have done little to alleviate drought conditions across Arizona. New Mexico is
hanging on to drought-free conditions across most of the state even with slightly
below-average precipitation and above-average temperatures across western portions
of the state. Monsoon thunderstorm precipitation has been growing in coverage
and intensity over the past several weeks, which could bring drought relief to many
parched areas through the next month.