Southwest Climate Outlook November 2006

November Climate Summary
Drought – During this normally dry time of year in the Southwest, drought conditions
have remained mostly unchanged since last month.
In the short-term, most of Arizona is only abnormally dry and much of
New Mexico is drought-free.
Future drought conditions and long-term relief will depend mainly on
winter snow and rain.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, temperatures have
generally been near average.
Precipitation – Northern areas of Arizona and portions of western New Mexico
have experienced above-average precipitation since the beginning of the water year
due to a series of early October storms.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict equal chances of above-average, below-average,
or average temperatures and increased chances of above-average precipitation
through the upcoming winter and spring.
El Niño – Sea surface temperatures have continued to warm across the equatorial
Pacific with the current El Nino episode. Moderate El Nino conditions are expected
to persist through the winter months into the spring.
The Bottom Line – A strong monsoon season and several October storms have
contributed to cooler temperatures and an improvement in drought conditions in
the Southwest. Future improvements will depend on winter precipitation, which is
forecast to be above average through the winter due to current El Niño conditions.