Southwest Climate Outlook June 2006

June Climate Summary
Drought – Drought continues in the Southwest, with most of the region in severe
or extreme drought, and some areas in exceptional drought due to the long-term
precipitation deficits.
• Drought conditions are expected to persist or intensify throughout most of
the Southwest. Some improvement is expected in western New Mexico and
southern Arizona.
• Reservoirs in Arizona and New Mexico have declined since this time last year.
Fire Danger – The long-term moisture deficits and high fuel loadings are producing
critically high fire potential, particularly in the higher elevation timber.
Temperature – Since the start of the water year on October 1, 2005, temperatures
throughout most of the Southwest have been above average.
Precipitation – The Southwest has been much drier than average since the start of the
water year, with many locations experiencing the driest winter and spring on record.
Climate Forecasts – Experts predict increased chances of warmer-than-average
temperatures and equal chances of precipitation through December 2006.
El Niño – ENSO-neutral conditions are expected to continue over at least the next
three months.
The Bottom Line – Drought is likely to persist or intensify over most of the Southwest.
Hydrological drought continues to affect streamflow and some large reservoir
levels, and agricultural drought conditions have persisted throughout the region.