Southwest Climate Outlook May 2005

May Climate Summary
Hydrological Drought
– Drought impacts continue to ease in much of the South
-
west, as snowmelt runoff feeds reservoirs.
• Lake Powell storage is expected to increase through July 2005. However,
combined storage at Lake Powell and Lake Mead is still well below capacity.
• Storage in most Arizona and New Mexico reservoirs continued to increase.
Most New Mexico reservoirs, remain below 35 percent of capacity.
Temperature
– During the past 30 days temperatures in the Southwest were gener
-
ally cooler than average.
Precipitation
– Water year precipitation is above average for most of the South
-
west. During the past 30 days, southern Arizona and southwestern and eastern New
Mexico have been drier than average. Northern Arizona and northwestern New
Mexico received above-average precipitation, chiefly during late April.
Climate Forecasts
– Seasonal temperature outlooks call for increased chances of
above-average temperatures in the Southwest. Seasonal precipitation outlooks call
for slightly increased chances of below-average precipitation in the Southwest this
summer. Precipitation is rarely predicted in the summer.
El Niño
– Neutral conditions have the highest probability of occurrence in the
tropical Pacific Ocean, although the probability of continuing El Niño conditions
remains above average.
The Bottom Line
– Above-average streamflow, from runoff of above-average snow
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pack, especially in northern New Mexico, will continue to ameliorate hydrological
drought conditions Southwest. Summer season forecasts indicate increased chances
of above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation in the Southwest.