Highlights
Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.
• All New Mexico reservoirs are at well-below-average levels, although February and March snowfall resulted in gains at most reservoirs.
• Storage in the major Colorado River reservoirs remains well below average.
•Salt and Verde River Basin reservoirs remain well below average.
Precipitation – Recent precipitation, while beneficial in the short-term, is not sufficient to overcome multi-year precipitation and soil moisture deficits. Prior to recent and rapid melt, Arizona and New Mexico snowpacks were below average—thus spring/summer streamflows across the region are projected to be below average. Moreover, current snowpack is below average throughout the Upper
Colorado and Upper Rio Grande River Basins.
Temperature – During the past 30 days, temperatures have been above average across the Southwest—breaking records at many stations.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and New Mexico through the spring and summer months. Increased temperature implies increased evapotranspiration. Precipitation forecasts do not suggest strong probability anomalies for either above- or below-average precipitation. The U.S. Drought Outlook suggests persistent drought conditions for virtually all of Arizona and New Mexico.
ENSO – ENSO conditions are neutral and will likely remain neutral during the first half of 2004. This means greater forecast uncertainty.