News

An “El Niño Watch” continues this month as issued by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center several months ago. The watch is just that: we are waiting and watching for the development of a full-fledged El Niño event that has yet to materialize across the equatorial Pacific Ocean. Several indicators of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) status declined, moving back towards ENSO-neutral values over the past month instead of leaning towards an El Niño event as they had been.  These shifts included slight cooling in the eastern Pacific Ocean and near-average wind patterns along the equator. But for those cheering on the development of an El Niño event, not all hope is lost (read more).

This post was originally published as part of the August 2014 Southwest Climate Outlook

What is the exact criteria to call something El Niño?  Is El Niño a continuum or is there a binary switch where it's either an El Niño event or not?

How closely linked is the strength of El Niño with observable effects in the Southwest?  Would a weak El Niño look that different from no El Niño at all?  (read more)

This week, we released the 5th episode in the CLIMAS podcast series[1] 1075' - Shortage on the Colorado River, which explores what a shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest.  In this post - Ben McMahan recaps some of the key issues that formed the impetus for this podcast series, summarizes the podcast episodes, and gives some backstory from folks who have been writing about the Colorado River (Basins) for years (read more)

1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest.

In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido speaks with Alan Forrest, Director of Tucson Water, about various strategies that Tucson implemented to deal with potential water shortages, the conservation and recapture efforts that areas of municipalities in Southern Arizona, and the practical realities of providing municipal water to an growing population in the southwest. (read more)

There’s been a lot of talk about El Niño and ‘busting the drought'.  How much can El Niño help with ongoing drought conditions in the West?

Significant amounts of rain fall during the monsoon, why doesn’t that solve our drought problems? (read more)

July started off with a bang with moisture and thunderstorm activity moving into Arizona over the 4th of July weekend. This start date for monsoon thunderstorm activity was very close to the climatological start date of July 3rd, as determined by the old dewpoint definition (three consecutive days with average dewpoints >= 54F) in Tucson. The ‘monsoon ridge’ of high pressure was in an ideal position over the first two weeks of July to guide abundant subtropical moisture into the state, providing fuel for almost daily thunderstorm activity across parts of southeastern Arizona and the high country along the Mogollon Rim. (read more)

1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest.

In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido talks to Dennis Rule, manager of the Central Arizona Groundwater Replenishment District (CAGRD), about the importance of CAGRD in the management of Arizona groundwater and potential impacts on the system from continued drought in the Colorado River Basin. (read more)

Is the strong start to the monsoon related to El Niño?  

What can we expect from the monsoon (in AZ & NM) with El Niño waiting in the wings?  (read more)

1075’ – Shortage on the Colorado River is a CLIMAS podcast series that explores what the first shortage declaration on the Colorado River would mean to those living in the Southwest.

In this episode, CLIMAS climate scientist Zack Guido and Mohammed Mahmoud, planning analyst with the Colorado River Programs department at the Central Arizona Project (CAP), discuss the CAP and its role in delivering Colorado River water throughout Arizona, as well as how a shortage would impact the CAP system. (read more)

In the July Southwest Climate Podcast, CLIMAS climate scientists Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins talk about the solid start to the monsoon, and seemingly inevitable monsoon breaks (like we just experienced). They also discuss the "inevitability" of this fickle El Niño event. There’s a feeling of Groundhog Day with these forecasts—and there continues to be uncertainty regarding the strength and duration of this El Niño event. (read more)