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ENSO Tracker - Sept 2022 | CLIMAS

 SW Climate Outlook

ENSO Tracker - Sept 2022

ENSO Tracker - Sept 2022

Sea surface temperature (SST) forecasts for Sept – Nov 2022 continue to call for cooler than average conditions across most of the equatorial Pacific (Fig. 1), and the current 3.4/4 anomalies are below the La Niña threshold (Fig. 2). ENSO outlooks generally call for La Niña to last well into fall and possibly through winter.

Forecast Roundup: On Sept 8 the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) maintained their “La Niña Advisory” noting “the coupled ocean-atmosphere system continued to reflect La Niña” and called for a 91-percent chance of La Niña through fall, and a 54-percent chance of La Niña in winter into spring. On Sept 8, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), noting below “oceanic and atmospheric variables have remained consistent with La Niña, strengthening slightly”. On Sept 9 the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) observed ongoing La Niña conditions that had a 70-percent chance of continuing into winter. On Sept 13 the Australian Bureau of Meteorology raised their ENSO outlook to a La Niña event, noting “Key atmospheric and oceanic indicators of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) show an established La Niña.” The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (solid and dashed black line, Fig. 4) is currently forecast to remain under the La Niña temperature threshold through fall and well into winter.

Summary: The triple dip La Niña appears to be here, with the new question of how long it will last this fall and winter. If La Niña conditions persist through winter, the Southwest can anticipate seasonal outlooks that call for below average winter precipitation, especially if this turns out to be a moderate instead of a weak La Niña event.

Online Resources

  • Figure 1 - Australian Bureau of Meteorology -
  • Figure 2 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center -
  • Figure 3 - International Research Institute for Climate and Society -
  • Figure 4 - NOAA - Climate Prediction Center -