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 SW Climate Outlook

On the CLIMAS Website

Nov 2015 SW Climate Podcast - The Hunt for Wet October

In the Nov 2015 episode of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins look back on an anomalously wet October, and in particular the effect of one system that made two visits to the Southwest.  They also talk about Hurricane Patricia, and the speed at which that tropical system escalated to one of the strongest storms on record.  They also talk about October weather in terms of the seasonal transition (between monsoon summer and fall/winter patterns) and the impact of tropical storm systems, as well as the difficulty of attributing specific weather events to longer term patterns (i.e. the El Niño Southern Oscillation).  They wrap up by talking about El Niño and the seasonal forecasts, which include projections of above average precipitation in the southwest, as well as a number of global impacts.  

Listen: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/nov-2015-climas-sw-climate-podcast-hunt-wet-october


El Niño is here, what does that mean for Arizona and New Mexico?

Ben McMahan & Mike Crimmins, Originally published on the CLIMAS blog, Sept 24, 2015

“El Niño” has been all over the news lately, even garnering comparisons to a Godzilla.  This characterization is in response to the near-record strength of this El Niño event, which is exciting for climate enthusiasts but leaves most people wondering what a strong El Niño event actually means for Arizona and New Mexico.

Read more: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/blog/el-niño-here…what-exactly-does-mean-arizona-and-new-mexico


Oct 2015 SW Climate Podcast - Monsoon Recap

In this episode of The Southwest Climate Podcast, Mike Crimmins & Zack Guido recap the 2015 monsoon, (and revisit some of their predictions from earlier this summer). In part 1, they give a quick overview of the monsoon, before taking a closer look at the month by month progression, to track the overall season for what stood out (and what was underwhelming).  In part 2, they talk about nuances associated with the monsoon, including the impacts of El Niño, and eastern pacific tropical storm activity.  They conclude with a discussion of the variable nature of  the monsoon, and what makes this such an exciting place to live as we watch the season unfold.

Listen: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/oct-2015-sw-climate-podcast-monsoon-recap


Sept 2015 SW Climate Podcast - El Niño Super-Podcast

In this edition of the CLIMAS Southwest Climate Podcast, Zack Guido and Mike Crimmins focus specifically on El Niño and what we can expect going into this fall and winter, given the “strong” status of this El Niño event.

Part 1: A look at the El Niño signal, including a look back at what happened in 2014 (and why El Niño didn’t start when we thought it would), as well as a look forward for what El Niño might mean regionally and globally. Part 2: A close look at the 97-98 El Niño event, and what happened in the Southwest during the last “strong” El Niño event...Can we expect more of the same?  What might be different? Part 3: A look at the El Niño models going into Fall 2015 and Winter 2016 - How certain are we about increased precipitation this winter?  When might we see this increase?  Any chance for a “boringly average” year, despite the El Niño signal?

Listen: http://www.climas.arizona.edu/podcast/sw-climate-podcast-el-niño-super-podcast