Forecast - November | December | January
The three-month NOAA temperature outlook (November-January; Figure 5) favors chances of above-average temperatures for all of New Mexico and most of Texas, through January. The one-month outlook favors chances for above-average temperatures in all of both states for November (figure not shown).
Figure 5 (right): NOAA three-month temperature outlook (November-January). Forecast made on October 18, 2018 by CPC.
The SMN outlook for November predicts minimum temperatures with above-average anomalies in a large part of the Baja California Peninsula, western and southern Sonora, Northeast and southern Chihuahua, regions of North-Central and southern Coahuila, and southern Nuevo León. In western Tamaulipas, below-average minimum temperatures are expected for Northeast Baja California, parts of northern Sonora, West-Central Chihuahua, Northeast Coahuila, parts of Northeast Nuevo León, and North and Southeast Tamaulipas (Figure 6, left). For December, above-average minimum temperatures are expected in the central regions of Baja California and a large part of Baja California Sur, a large part of Sonora and Chihuahua, and most of Coahuila, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas (Figure 6, right).
Figure 6 (above): Predicted minimum temperature anomalies for northern Mexico in (°C), November 2018 (left) and December 2018 (right). Forecast made in October 1, 2018 by SMN.
The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is an experimental seasonal forecasting system that incorporates forecasts from several different runs of individual models, to create a multi-model ensemble of predictions. This method has been shown to produce better prediction quality, on average, than the ensemble of runs from any single model (CPC). The temperature forecast for November-January favors chances for above-average temperatures for New Mexico and most of Texas, and average temperatures for South Texas and most of the northern states in Mexico (Figure 7).
Figure 7 (above): NMME temperature forecast for November-January. Forecast made by CPC.
The NOAA three-month precipitation outlook (November-January; Figure 8) shows increased chances of above-average precipitation for all of New Mexico and Texas through January, due to the predicted transition to El Niño during the fall. The one-month outlook (November; figure not shown) also favors chances for above-average precipitation for all of New Mexico and Texas for November.
Figure 8 (right): NOAA three-month precipitation outlook (November-January). Forecast made on October 18, 2018 by CPC.
For November, SMN forecasts show above-average precipitation for Central Baja California, almost the entire state of Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila and Nuevo León, and northern and southern Tamaulipas. Below-average precipitation is expected in small areas of Southeast Tamaulipas (Figure 9, left). For December, above-average precipitation is predicted in parts of southern Baja California, much of Sonora, Chihuahua, and Nuevo León, North-East and southern Coahuila, and North and Southeast Tamaulipas. Below-average conditions are predicted for northern Baja California and small areas of Coahuila; the rest of the region is expected to experience precipitation close to the average (Figure 9, right).
Figure 9 (above): Predicted precipitation anomalies for northern Mexico (in %), November (left) and December (right). Forecast made on October 1, 2018 by SMN.
NMME forecasts chances of average precipitation for New Mexico, most of Texas, Chihuahua, and Tamaulipas, and chances of above-average precipitation for Southwest Texas, Coahuila, and Nuevo León, for November-January (Figure 10).
Figure 10 (above): NMME precipitation forecast for November-January. Forecast made by CPC.
Monsoon precipitation in the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico since June has eliminated prospects for above-average fire potential across the region, according to the North American Seasonal Fire Assessment and Outlook. The forecast for November indicates below-average fire potential for Central and East Texas, and average fire potential for the remainder of Texas, New Mexico, and all of the northern Mexico states (Figure 11). Forecasts for December indicate average fire potential for the entire Rio Grande/Bravo region.
Figure 11 (above): Fire outlook for November (left) and December (right). Red shading indicates conditions that favor increased fire potential. Green shading indicates conditions that favor decreased fire potential. Forecast made on October 10, 2018 from NIFC and SMN.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
As of mid-October, ENSO-neutral conditions prevailed, but sea-surface temperatures in the east-central tropical Pacific and low level wind anomalies began to show signs of El Niño. The official forecast now predicts a 70-75% chance of weak El Niño development by November (Figure 12; IRI; NOAA). An El Niño watch is officially in effect. Forecasts suggest weak El Niño conditions to persist through winter. If forecasts are correct, chances of a wet winter in the Southwest U.S. and northern Mexico are likely to increase.
Figure12 (above): Probabilistic ENSO Forecast from IRI.
For more ENSO information:
English: http://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/enso/enso-essentials/ y http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/.
Spanish: http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/climatologia/diagnostico-climatico/enos y http://www.smn.gov.ar/?mod=biblioteca&id=68