Publications

Tronstad, R., Osgood, D. & Teegerstrom, T., 2004. The Role of Electronic Technologies for Reaching Underserved Audiences. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 86(3), pp.767-771.

Colby, B.G., 2004. The Role of Markets in Reallocating Irrigation Water. In Encyclopedia of Water Science. New York, NY: Marcel Dekker.

Lenart, M., 2004. Salt cedar: Villain or scapegoat when it comes to water use?. Southwest Climate Outlook, 3(10), pp.2-5.

Lenart, M., 2004. Scientists look to ocean for clues about drought. Southwest Climate Outlook, 3(1), pp.1-4.

Lenart, M., 2004. Southwest faces high fire risk despite recent rains. Southwest Climate Outlook, 3(4), pp.1-2.

Dressier, K. et al., 2004. Streamflow Estimation from Hydrologic Model Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Snow Information in Snowmelt Dominated Basins. American Geophysical Union, Fall Meeting 2004, (47).

Brookshire, D. et al., 2004. Water Markets in the Southwest. Southwest Hydrology, 3(2), pp.14-15.

Brown, D. & Comrie, A.C., 2004. A Winter Precipitation ‘Dipole’ in the Western United States Associated with Multidecadal ENSO Variability. Geophysical Research Letters, 31(9), p.L09203.

Garfin, G.M. et al., 2003. The 2003 national seasonal assessment workshop: A proactive approach to preseason fire danger assessment. Proceedings American Meteorological Society Fifth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology.

Alley, R. et al., 2003. Abrupt Climate Change. Science, 299(5615), pp.2005-2010.

Hartmann, H., Bradley, A. & Hamlet, A., 2003. Advanced Hydrologic Predictions for Improving Water Management. In R. Lawford et al., eds. Water: Science, Policy and Management. American Geophysical Union , pp. 285-387.

Wise, E., 2003. Assessing Trends in Ozone Air Quality, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Lenart, M., 2003. Average winter rains in Arizona could bring drought relief. Southwest Climate Outlook, 2(11), pp.1-3.

Garfin, G.M., Wordell, T. & Brown, T., 2003. Brief - National Seasonal Assessment Workshop. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

Carter, R. & Morehouse, B.J., 2003. Climate and Urban Water Providers in Arizona: An Analysis of Vulnerability Perceptions and Climate Information, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Diaz, H.F. & Morehouse, B.J., 2003. Climate and water: transboundary challenges in the Americas, Dordrecht ; Boston ; London: Kluwer Academic.

Climate Assessment for the Southwest, , 2003. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Annual Progress Report for Funding Year 2002 - 2003, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Comrie, A.C., 2003. Climate Doesn't Stop at the Border: U.S. - Mexico Climatic Regions and Causes of Variability. In H. F. Diaz & Morehouse, B. J. , eds. Climate and Water: Transboundary Challenges in the Americas. Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers, pp. 291-316.

Carter, R., 2003. Climate, forest management stoke Western wildfires. END InSight, 2(4), pp.1-4.

Carter, R., 2003. Climate, Groundwater, and Population Growth. END InSight, 2(1), pp.2-3.

Bradley, R., Hughes, M. & Diaz, H., 2003. Climate in Medieval Time. Science, 302(5644), pp.404-405.

Garfin, G.M. & Morehouse, B.J., 2003. Climate Information and Water Resource Management: Two Initiatives in the Southwest. American Meteorological Society 83rd Annual Meeting, Symposium on Impacts of Water Variability, Benefits and Challenges.

Vásquez-León, M., West, C. & Finan, T., 2003. A Comparative Assessment of Climate Vulnerability: Agriculture and Ranching on Both Sides of the US–Mexico Border. Global Environmental Change, 13(3), pp.159-173.

Carter, R., 2003. Drought Update: Where do we Stand?. END InSight, 2(6), p.3.

Schmidt, N., 2003. A Dry El Niño Winter. END InSight, 2(2), pp.4-6.

Colby, B.G., 2003. Economic Characteristics of Successful Environmental Dispute Resolution Outcomes. In R. Oleary & Bingham, L. , eds. Evaluating Environmental and Public Policy Dispute Resolution Programs and Policies. Resources for the Future, pp. 301-325.

Carter, R., 2003. The economic impacts of drought in the Southwest. END InSight, 2(3), pp.1-4.

Colby, B.G., 2003. Economics of Urban Water Demand and Supply. In N. Buras, ed. Managing Urban Water Demand. Dordrecht, Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Press.

Hughes, M. & Funkhouser, G., 2003. Frequency-Dependent Climate Signal in Upper and Lower Forest Border Trees in the Mountains of the Great Basin. Climatic Change, 59(1-2), pp.233-244.

Carter, R., 2003. Groundwater resources and climate variability. END InSight, 2(1), pp.1-2.

Komatsu, K. et al., 2003. Increase in Coccidioidomycosis - Arizona, 1998-2001. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, 52, pp.109-112.

Westerling, A. & Swetnam, T., 2003. Interannual to Decadal Drought and Wildfire in the Western U.S. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 84(49), pp.545-560.

Carter, R., 2003. The many dimensions of drought. END InSight, 2(6), pp.1-4.

Kolivras, K. & Comrie, A.C., 2003. Modeling Valley Fever Incidence Based on Climate Conditions. International Journal of Biometeorology, 47, pp.87-101.

Varady, R. & Morehouse, B.J., 2003. Moving Borders from the Periphery to the Center: river basins, political boundaries, and water management policy. In R. Lawford et al., eds. Water: Science, Policy and Management American Geophysical Union . Washington, DC.: Water Resources Monograph, pp. 143-159.

Garfin, G.M. et al., 2003. National Seasonal Assessment Workshop Final Report. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

National Research Council, , 2003. Planning Climate and Global Change Research: A Review of the Draft U.S. Climate Change Science Program Strategic Plan, Washington, D.C.: The National Academies Press.

Colby, B.G. & Wishart, S., 2003. Riparian Areas Generate Property Value Premium for Landowners. Arizona Review, 1(1).

Lenart, M., 2003. Southwestern drought regimes might worsen with climate change. Southwest Climate Outlook, 2(12), pp.1-3.

Carter, R., 2003. Is spring coming earlier in the Southwest?. END InSight, 2(2), pp.1-3.

West, C.T. & Vásquez-León, M., 2003. Testing Farmer's Perceptions of Climate Variability: A Case Study from the Sulphur Springs Valley, Arizona. In S. Strauss & Orlove, B. , eds. Weather, Climate Culture. New York: Berg, p. 233.

Sengupta, S. & Osgood, D., 2003. The Value of Remoteness: a Hedonic Estimation of Ranchette Prices. Ecological Economics, 44(1), pp.91-103.

Franz, K. et al., 2003. Verification of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Predictions for Water Supply Forecasting in the Colorado River Basin. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 4(6), pp.1105-1118.

Carter, R., 2003. Water management in dry times, dry places. END InSight, 2(5), pp.1-4.

Jacobs, K. & Pulwarty, R., 2003. Water Resource Management: Science, Planning and Decision-Making. In Science and Water Resource Issues: Challenges and Opportunities. Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union.

Lawford, R.D. et al., 2003. Water: science, policy, and management; challenges and opportunities, Washington, D.C.: American Geophysical Union.

Comrie, A.C., Redmond, K. & Daly, C., 2003. WestMap: The Western Climate Mapping Initiative. 20th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop.

Diem, J. & Comrie, A.C., 2002. Allocating Anthropogenic Pollutant Emissions Over Space: Application to Ozone Pollution Management. Journal of Environmental Management, 63, pp.425-447.

Hartmann, H., 2002. Better Communication with Decisionmakers: Focus on Forecasts. Weatherzine.

Liverman, D. & Merideth, R., 2002. Climate and Society in the U.S. Southwest: the Context for a Regional Assessment. Climate Research, 21(3), pp.199-218.

Climate Assessment for the Southwest, , 2002. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Annual Progress Report for Funding Year 2001 - 2002, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Carter, R., 2002. Climate divisions: To use or not to use?. End InSight, 1(5), pp.3-4.

Sheppard, P. et al., 2002. The Climate of the U.S. Southwest. Climate Research, 21(3), pp.219-318.

Comrie, A.C. et al., 2002. Climate Science and Services: Some Lessons from CLIMAS. 19th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop.

Eakin, H. & Conley, J., 2002. Climate Variability and the Vulnerability of Ranching in Southeastern Arizona: a Pilot Study. Climate Research, 21(3), pp.271-281.

Hartmann, H. et al., 2002. Confidence Builders: Evaluating Seasonal Climate Forecasts from User Perspectives. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 83(5), pp.683-698.

Jacobs, K., 2002. Connecting Science, Policy, and Decision-making: A Handbook for Researchers and Science Agencies, Silver Spring, MD: NOAA Climate Program Office.

Funkhouser, G. et al., 2002. Cool Season Precipitation in the Southwestern United States Since AD 1000: Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Techniques for Reconstruction. International Journal of Climatology, 22, pp.1645-1662.

Hartmann, H., Pagano, T. & Sorooshian, S., 2002. Customized On-Line Climate Forecast Evaluations: a Tool for Improving Water and Watershed Management. 10th Conference on Agricultural, Range, and Aviation Meteorology.

Comrie, A.C. & Brown, D., 2002. Development and Analysis of Fine-Scale Gridded Climate Data for Arizona and New Mexico. 12th Conference on Applied Climatology.

Carter, R., 2002. Dreaming of a white Christmas?. END InSight, 1(6), pp.3-4.

Lenart, M., 2002. El Niño: A focus on variability. END InSight, 1(1), p.1.

Pagano, T., Hartmann, H. & Sorooshian, S., 2002. Factors affecting seasonal forecast use in Arizona water management: a case study of the 1997-98 El Nino. Climate Research, 21(3), pp.259-269.

Garfin, G.M. & Morehouse, B.J., 2002. Fire In the West. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

Woolley, R. et al., 2002. Fire Season Outlook: Southwest Area. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

Carter, R., 2002. Floods in the Southwest. END InSight, 1(3), pp.1-3.

Hartmann, H., Pagano, T. & Sorooshian, S., 2002. How Good are Seasonal Climate Forecasts?. The Climate Report, 3(1), pp.6-11.

Morehouse, B.J., 2002. An Integrated Approach to Evaluating Climate Impacts in the Southwestern U.S. The Climate Report, 3(1), pp.2-5.

Morehouse, B.J., 2002. Integrating Climate into Water Policy. Southwest Hydrology, 1(2), pp.16-17, 28.

Cavazos, T., Comrie, A.C. & Liverman, D., 2002. Intraseasonal Variability Associated with Wet Monsoons in Southeast Arizona. Journal of Climate, 15(17), pp.2477-2490.

Pagano, T., 2002. Life as an Interdisciplinary Scientist: Am I Being Set Up?. Weatherzine.

Lenart, M. & Carter, R., 2002. Monsoon brings relief, but not likely to end drought conditions. END InSight, 1(2), pp.1-2.

Cole, J., Overpeck, J.T. & Cook, E., 2002. Multiyear La Niña Events and Persistent Drought in the Contiguous United States. Geophysical Research Letters, 29(13), pp.25-1-25-4.

Carter, R., 2002. PDO: Where will the footprints lead?. END InSight, 1(4), pp.1-3.

Schmidt, N., 2002. Predicting El Niño. END InSight, 1(6), pp.1-2.

Kolivras, K. & Comrie, A.C., 2002. Predicting Valley Fever Incidence Based on Climate Conditions. The Climate Report, 3(1), pp.12-15.

Diem, J. & Comrie, A.C., 2002. Predictive Mapping of Air Pollution Involving Sparse Spatial Observations. Environmental Pollution, 119, pp.99-117.

Finan, T. et al., 2002. Processes of Adaptation to Climate Variability: a Case Study from the U.S. Southwest. Climate Research, 21(3), pp.299-310.

Colby, B.G. & Wishart, S., 2002. Quantifying the Influence of Desert Riparian Areas on Residential Property Values. The Appraisal Journal, 70(3), pp.304-308.

Ray, A.J. et al., 2002. Research Opportunities for Climate and Society Intreactions in the North American Monsoon Region. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

Brown, T., 2002. Seasonal Consensus Climate Forecast for Wildland Fire Management. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

Morehouse, B.J., Carter, R. & Tschakert, P., 2002. Sensitivity of Urban Water Resources in Phoenix, Tucson, and Sierra Vista, Arizona, to Severe Drought. Climate Research, 21(3), pp.283-297.

Carter, R., 2002. Snowpack in the Southwest. END InSight, 1(5), pp.1-3.

Lenart, M., 2002. Southwest drought could persist despite monsoon, El Niño. END InSight, (1), pp.1-3.

Brown, D. & Comrie, A.C., 2002. Spatial Modeling of Winter Temperature and Precipitation in Arizona and New Mexico, USA. Climate Research, 22, pp.115-128.

Brown, D. & Comrie, A.C., 2002. Sub-Regional Seasonal Precipitation Linkages to SOI and PDO in the Southwest United States. Atmospheric Science Letters, 3(2-4), pp.94-102.

Carter, R., 2002. Tropical storm impacts on Arizona and New Mexico. END InSight, 1(2), pp.3-4.

Comrie, A.C. & Broyles, B., 2002. Variability and Spatial Modeling of Fine-Scale Precipitation Data for the Sonoran Desert of Southwest Arizona. Journal of Arid Environments, 50, pp.573-592.

Vásquez-León, M. et al., 2002. Vulnerability to Climate Variability in the Farming Sector, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Hartmann, H., Bales, R. & Sorooshian, S., 2002. Weather, Climate, and Hydrologic Forecasting for the U.S. Southwest: A Survey. Climate Research, 21(3), pp.239-258.

Schmidt, N., 2002. Wet winter? Dry winter? What's the scoop?. END InSight, 1(3), pp.4-5.

Diem, J. & Comrie, A.C., 2001. Air quality, climate, and policy: a case study of ozone pollution in Tucson, Arizona. The Professional Geographer, 53, pp.469-491.

Morehouse, B.J., Carter, R. & Sprouse, T., 2001. Assessing Transboundary Sensitivity to Drought: the Importance of Effluent in Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora. Natural Resources Journal, 40, pp.783-817.

Morehouse, B.J., 2001. Can Tucson's Water Supply Survive a Drought on the Colorado River?. WaterWords, 19(1).

Climate Assessment for the Southwest, , 2001. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Annual Progress Report for Funding Year 2000 - 2001, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Bales, R. & Morehouse, B.J., 2001. The Climate Assessment Project for the Southwest: An Integrated Approach. 81st Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society.

Yarnal, B. et al., 2001. Developments and Prospects in Synoptic Climatology. International Journal of Climatology, 21, pp.1923-1950.

Kolivras, K. et al., 2001. Environmental Variability and Coccidioidomycosis (Valley Fever). Aerobiologia, 17(1), pp.31-42.

Keyes, D. et al., 2001. Estimating the Costs of Violating Air Quality Standards. EM: Air and Waste Management Association's Magazine for Environmental Managers, (1), pp.22-30.

Franz, K., 2001. Evaluation of National Weather Service Ensemble Streamflow Prediction Water Supply Forecasts. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona.

Carter, R. & Morehouse, B.J., 2001. An Examination of Arizona Water Law and Policy From the Perspective of Climate Impacts, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Comrie, A.C. & Cavazos, T., 2001. Experimental Seasonal Forecast of Monsoon Precipitation in Arizona. 18th Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop.

Garfin, G.M. & Morehouse, B.J., 2001. Facilitating Use of Climate Information for Wildfire Decision-Making in the U.S. Southwest. Fourth Symposium on Fire and Forest Meteorology, pp.116-122.

Garfin, G.M. & Morehouse, B.J., 2001. Fire & Climate Workshops. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

Austin, D. & Wolf, B., 2001. Fire in Indian Country: Two Case Studies in the Southwestern United States, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Liverman, D., Yarnal, B. & Turner, B., 2001. The Human Dimensions of Global Environmental Change. In G. Gaile & Wilmott, C. , eds. Geography: A Millennial Assessment.

Wright, E. et al., 2001. North American Monsoonal Moisture Sources Revealed Using Temperature, Precipitation, and Precipitation Stable Isotope Time Series. Geophysical Research Letters, 28, pp.787-790.

Hartmann, H., 2001. Stakeholder Driven Research in a Hydroclimatic Context. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona.

West, C., 2001. Testing Farmers' Perceptions of Climate Variability with Meteorological Data: Burkina Faso and the Sulphur Springs Valley Arizona. Tucson, AZ: University of Arizona.

Pagano, T., Hartmann, H. & Sorooshian, S., 2001. Using Climate Forecasts for Water Management: Arizona and the 1997-1998 El Nino. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 37(5), pp.1139-1153.

Cavazos, T. et al., 2001. Using Regression and Neural Networks to Reconstruct Circulation Indices and Precipitation in the Southwest. 81st Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society.

Morehouse, B.J. et al., 2001. A Vertically Integrated Assessment of Climate Impacts on Water Supply in Arizona. 81st Annual Meeting of the American Meteorological Society.

Carter, R., Tschakert, P. & Morehouse, B.J., 2000. Assessing the Sensitivity of the Southwest's Urban Water Sector to Climatic Variability, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Austin, D. et al., 2000. An Assessment of Climate Vulnerability in the Middle San Pedro River, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Austin, D., Gerlak, S. & Smith, C., 2000. Building Partnerships with Native Americans in Climate-Related Research and Outreach, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Kolivras, K., 2000. Climate and Valley Fever. Tucson, AZ: The University of Arizona.

Climate Assessment for the Southwest, , 2000. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Annual Progress Report for Funding Year 1999 - 2000, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Climate Assessment for the Southwest, , 2000. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Phase I Final Report for Funding Years 1998-2000, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Pagano, T., Hartmann, H. & Sorooshian, S., 2000. Climate Forecasts: a New Tool for Hazard Management in the Southwestern U.S. Natural Hazards Observer, 24(6), pp.7-8.

Morehouse, B.J., 2000. Climate Impacts on Urban Water Resources in the Southwest: The Importance of Context. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 36(2), pp.265-277.

Kolivras, K. & Comrie, A.C., 2000. Human Health: Climate and Valley Fever. In W. Sprigg & Hinkley, T. , eds. Preparing for a Changing Climate. The Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change: Southwest. Tucson, AZ: Institute for the Study of Planet Earth, University of Arizona.

Morehouse, B.J., 2000. The Implications of La Nina and El Nino for Fire Management. National Seasonal Assessment Workshops for Fire Potential.

Morehouse, B.J., Carter, R. & Sprouse, T., 2000. The Implications of Sustained Drought for Transboundary Water Management in Nogales, Arizona and Nogales, Sonora. Natural Resources Journal, 40, pp.783-817.

Comrie, A.C., 2000. Mapping a Wind-Modified Urban Heat Island in Tuczon, Arizona. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 81(10), p.2417.

Cavazos, T., Comrie, A.C. & Gershunov, A., 2000. Seasonal Forecast of Monsoon Precipitation in Arizona using Linear and Nonlinear Techniques. 2nd Southwest Weather Symposium.

Whitaker, P. et al., 2000. Seasonal forecasts for water resources in the U.S.: Southwest applications and evaluations. San Pedro Conference: Divided Waters - Common Ground, pp.98-99.

Whitaker, P. et al., 2000. Seasonal Water Supply Forecast Performance: Issues and Evaluations. EOS, Transactions, American Geophysical Union, 81(19S), p.205.

Liverman, D. & O'Brien, K., 2000. Southern Skies: International Environmental Policy in Mexico. In W. Clark et al., eds. Learning to Manage Global Environmental Risks: A Comparative History of Social Responses to Climate Change, Ozone Depletion and Acid Rain. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press.

Brown, D. & Comrie, A.C., 2000. Spatial Modeling and Scale Analysis of Winter Climate Variability in Arizona and New Mexico. 2nd Southwest Weather Symposium.

Morehouse, B.J., 2000. The Value of Understanding Natural Climate Variability and its Impacts as a Bridge to Thinking about Climate Change. International Conference on Climate Change Communication.

Pagano, T. et al., 1999. Advances in Seasonal Forecasting for Water Management in Arizona: A Case Study of the 1997-98 El Nino, Tucson, AZ: Department of Hydrology and Water Resources, The University of Arizona.

Conley, J. et al., 1999. CLIMAS Ranching Case Study: Year 1, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Climate Assessment for the Southwest, , 1999. Climate Assessment for the Southwest Annual Progress Report for Funding Year 1998-1999, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Liverman, D. & Kourous, G., 1999. Climate Change and the Borderlands: an Introduction and Assessment. Borderlines, 56(7).

Sheppard, P.R. et al., 1999. The Climate of the Southwest, Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.

Angersbach, K. et al., 1999. Climate Variability in the Southwest: An Integrated Assessment. 16th Annual Pacific Climate Workshop on Climate Variability of the Eastern North Pacific and Western North America (PACLIM).

Liverman, D. et al., 1999. Environmental Issues Along the U.S. Mexico Border: Drivers of Changes and the Response of Citizens and Institutions. Annual Review of Energy and Environment, 24, pp.607-643.

Comrie, A.C. et al., 1999. Exploring Climate Variability and Valley Fever. 24th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop.

Yool, S. et al., 1999. Geospatial Modeling of Coccidiodes Immitis Habitat as Mediated by Climate and Surface Variables. 24th Annual Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop.

Liverman, D. & Breunig, L., 1999. Land Use Change and Climate Change in the Greater Chihuahuan Desert Ecoregion,

Cavazos, T., Comrie, A.C. & Liverman, D., 1999. Local and Remote Linkages Associated with Extreme Precipitation Events During the Monsoon Season in Southeast Arizona. 24th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop.

Benequista, N. & James, J.S., 1999. Pilot Stakeholder Assessment Report, Tucson, AZ: Bureau of Applied Research in Anthropology, University of Arizona.

Hartmann, H. et al., 1999. Teleconnections between Winter Circulation Patterns, Surface Climatology, and Vegetation Behavior in the Southwest U.S. 11th Conference on Applied Climatology.

Liverman, D., 1999. Vulnerability and Adaptation to Drought in Mexico. Natural Resources Journal, 39(1), pp.99-115.

Hartmann, H., Bales, R. & Sorooshian, S., 1999. Weather, Climate, and Hydrologic Forecasting for the Southwest U.S., Tucson, AZ: Climate Assessment for the Southwest, University of Arizona.