Single weather stations around the region are useful for comparing long term averages to the current year. Figure 1 summarizes monthly precipitation, and shows 2019 lagged behind 2018 and long term averages in most months at most locations. Plots of daily precipitation for stations around the region (Fig. 2) illustrate the slow start and lower than average totals across the region. This monsoon was notable in how much it deviated from the past few years, where many locations in the Southwest saw a run of above normal monsoon precipitation. This made 2019 particularly disappointing. A look at the long term averages demonstrates that 2019 is consistent with some of the drier monsoons on record, even while specific station locations were at or near record driest. (Read More)
Monthly Precipitation and Temperature: September precipitation in Arizona ranged from much below average in the north, to much above average in the south, while most of New Mexico was average to below average (Fig. 1a). September temperatures were mostly average to much above average in Arizona and mostly much above average to record warmest in New Mexico (Fig. 1b). The daily average temperature anomalies for Sept 1 – Oct 15 (Fig. 2) highlight the fluctuations at select stations around the region. (Read More).
Forecast Roundup: Despite warmer waters in the equatorial Pacific, seasonal outlooks and forecasts based on sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Figs. 1-2) and other oceanic and atmospheric indicators, all point to ENSO-neutral conditions lasting through 2019 and into 2020. On Oct 10, the Japanese Meteorological Agency (JMA) highlighted lingering warmer-than-normal SSTs in the western equatorial Pacific, and maintained their call for a 60-percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions to continue until winter 2019-2020. On Oct 10, the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) issued their ENSO diagnostic discussion with an inactive alert status, and focused on neutral conditions across the oceans and atmosphere. They called for an 85-percent chance of ENSO-neutral conditions persisting through fall 2019, and a 55- to 60-percent chance of ENSO-neutral through spring 2020. On Oct 10, the International Research Institute (IRI) issued an ENSO Quick Look (Fig. 3), emphasizing neutral conditions in oceanic and atmospheric indicators. Their models see ENSO-neutral as the most likely outcome, but remain at “slightly higher chances for El Niño than La Niña”. On Oct 15, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology maintained their ENSO Outlook at ‘inactive’ with most oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the range of neutral. The Oct 2019 North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) saw a turn back towards positive SST anomalies, but is forecast to remain within the range of ENSO-neutral through 2019 (Fig. 4). (Read More)