NOAA Climate Services Division

Through engagement with a variety of agencies and stakeholders, we are developing methods, resources, and tools for incorporating climate change and non-stationarity into planning efforts. Through this project and leveraged activities, we are: a) developing and applying scenario planning to address uncertainty of climate change and other stressors; b) evaluating needs and approaches for system-wide climate literacy training of National Park staff; c) identifying the needs and capacities of the water resources sector related to climate change and non-stationarity; d) evaluating methods for combining paleoclimatological information with historical observations and climate change projections; e) communicating uncertainty of projections of Colorado River flows; f) supporting the National Climate Assessment.

To date, we have demonstrated a practical process for using scenario planning to consider climate change in the context of multiple stressors. the approach is now being used within the National Park Service. We have also developed a comprehensive curriculum for improving climate change literacy in the National Park Service.

Barriers to the use of climate information can be met with innovative tools that offer users the ability to perform custom­ized analyses. This project works to develop such tools, with a commitment to ongoing user engagement and adaptation of the tools. In addition, tools that have proved successful in regional applications may be usefully extended to new regions. Rather than simply transfer the software, we develop partner capacities to implement collaborative software development protocols and processes. Tools developed, maintained, or extended under this project include the Climate Information Delivery and Decision Support System (CLIDDSS), the Forecast Evaluation Tool (FET), the Dynamic Drought Index Tool (DDIT) developed by Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), AgroClimate developed by the Southeast Climate Consortium (SECC), and the PaleoToolKit developed in conjunction with the Western Water Assessment (WWA) and CLIMAS-affiliated researchers. For more on each of these products, visit the Tools page.

Early in the CLIMAS project, dialogue with stakeholders clearly identified significant barriers precluding more extensive and effective use of hydroclimatic forecasts, including lack of relevant and quantifiable forecast skill, misinterpretation of forecast products, and inability to place forecasts in historical context. Qualitative aspects of forecasts can be as important as any quantitative attribute in affecting how users interpret, apply, and ultimately judge probabilistic forecasts. Significant work is needed to develop forecast products that can be interpreted easily, correctly, and reliably without the need for special training. This project applied techniques for assessing forecast performance, qualitatively and quantitatively, with the intention of helping stakeholders appropriately align forecast use with measures of forecast skill. Researchers also examined the impacts of misinterpretation of forecast products.