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October 2013 Southwest Climate Outlook
Published October 18, 2013
Drought: Drought conditions do not often change this time of year and remain similar to those 30 days ago. Currently, moderate or more severe drought covers 62 and 75 percent of Arizona and New Mexico, respectively.
Temperature: Several storm systems passed through the Southwest, bringing cooler-than-average conditions. Temperatures have been between 2 and 6 degrees F below average in Arizona but warmer in New Mexico.
Precipitation: Precipitation generally has been less than 50 percent of average in the Southwest in the last 30 days, except in northern parts of both states, where a storm around October 10 delivered rain and snow.
Water Supply: Wet conditions in September boosted water storage in the Southwest, with the Pecos River in New Mexico and small reservoirs benefitting most. Reservoir storage in the region, however, remains much below average.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): ENSO-neutral conditions, which have persisted for more than a year, likely will continue through the winter.
Precipitation Forecasts: Seasonal forecasts for the November 2013–January 2014 period call for above-average temperatures in all of Arizona and New Mexico and below-average precipitation for all of New Mexico and southeastern Arizona.
On The Horizon: Octover is a transition season in which the mechanism of precipitation shifts to winter frontal storms. For upcoming months, the consistency of precipitation and cool temperatures can help establish early snowpacks, which are vital for replenishing regional water supplies.
Southwest Climate Outlook Staff
- Michael Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
- Gregg Garfin, Founding Editor, Institute of the Environment
- Zack Guido, Managing Editor, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
- Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
- Jessica Dollin, CLIMAS Publications Assistant
- Dave Dubois, New Mexico State Climatologist
Please direct your Southwest Climate Outlook comments and suggestions to Zack Guido.
The CLIMAS Web site contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials.... Read full disclaimer