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Published June 26, 2013
Wildland Fire Outlook(July 2013)
Data Source(s): National Interagency Coordination Center, Southwest Coordination Center
Above-normal significant fire potential is expected to return to normal over much of Arizona and western New Mexico in early July (Figure 13), but significant fire risk will remain above average through mid-July in parts of northern Arizona. Significant fire potential is also expected to be normal in August and September. Significant fire potential refers to the likelihood that a wildland fire will require additional resources from outside the area in which the fire originated. Decreasing fire risk in July relates to the onset of the monsoon, which begins, on average, in early July in southern Arizona and New Mexico and slightly later in northern regions. The monsoon helps deliver rain and humidity that dampen fire risk. However, as the monsoon approaches more dry lightning strikes occur contributing to increased fire activity in the weeks prior to vigorous monsoon activity. The peak of the fire season in the Southwest is in June.
Fuel and soil moisture conditions remain extremely dry due to above-average temperatures and below-average precipitation. These conditions are reflected in the moderate to extreme drought that covers most of the Southwest (see drought status for Arizona and New Mexico on pages 6 and 7).
The National Interagency Coordination Center at the National Interagency Fire Center produces seasonal wildland fire outlooks each month. They are subjective assessments that synthesize information provided by fire and climate experts throughout the United States. The forecast (Figure 14) considers observed climate conditions, climate and weather forecasts, vegetation health, and surface-fuels conditions in order to assess fire potential for fires greater than 100 acres.
National Wildland Fire Outlook::
Southwest Wildland Fire Outlook::
Southwest Climate Outlook Staff
- Michael Crimmins, UA Extension Specialist
- Stephanie Doster, Institute of the Environment Editor
- Gregg Garfin, Founding Editor, Institute of the Environment
- Zack Guido, Managing Editor, CLIMAS Associate Staff Scientist
- Nancy J. Selover, Arizona State Climatologist
- Jessica Dollin, CLIMAS Publications Assistant
- Dave Dubious, New Mexico State Climatologist
Please direct your Southwest Climate Outlook comments and suggestions to Zack Guido.
The CLIMAS Web site contains official and non-official forecasts, as well as other information. While we make every effort to verify this information, please understand that we do not warrant the accuracy of any of these materials.... Read full disclaimer