January 2012 Climate Summary

Drought: Warm and dry conditions reigned in Arizona in the past 30 days, and moderate or a more severe drought category covered more than 60 percent of the state. In eastern New Mexico, drought conditions slightly improved.

Temperature: Temperatures were warmer than average in many regions in the Southwest in the last month. Most of Arizona was at least 3 degrees F above average, and temperatures across a large section of the Colorado Plateau were up to 6 degrees F warmer than average.

Precipitation: Conditions generally have been dry in the past 30 days, which reflects  the typical La Niña pattern that was not present during the first three weeks of December.

Climate Forecasts: Seasonal precipitation outlooks call for drier-than-average conditions through the winter in New Mexico and Arizona, with southern regions drier than northern areas. Temperature outlooks call for increased odds of warmer-than-average conditions through the winter.

The Bottom Line: Dry conditions returned to Arizona and the western half of New Mexico after a wet and cool December. These conditions are more representative of typical La Niña events, in which the jet stream and the storms it ferries are often pushed north. Like last winter, December was wet and January has been dry. The key difference, however, is that this winter the Upper Colorado River Basin did not benefit from the December storms that blanketed the high elevations of Arizona and New Mexico in snow. Rather, snow has been sparse and most snowpacks in this region are well below average. Consequently, early spring streamflow forecasts for the Colorado River call for inflow into Lake Powell to be about 64 percent of average. Conditions can rapidly change, and there likely will be more wet spells. However, using past La Niña events as a guide, forecasters expect dry conditions to be more common than wet ones.