Hydrological Drought – Hydrological drought continues in the Southwest.
• Interior Arizona and New Mexico reservoirs are still at well below-average levels.
• The levels of Lake Powell and Lake Mead are well below average. Colorado
River Basin states’ water resource managers are discussing plans of action for possible future shortages.
Precipitation – Following copious early April precipitation across southern Arizona and most of New Mexico, the region has been seasonally dry. Snowmelt has been early across our region, and low snowpack in the Upper Colorado River Basin is driving forecasts for below-average inflow to Lake Powell.
Temperature – Temperatures have been well above average across the Southwest since around the third week of April.
Climate Forecasts – Seasonal forecasts indicate considerably increased probabilities of above-average temperatures across Arizona and most of New Mexico through the summer months.
El Niño – Conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean remain neutral. Forecasts do not indicate a strong likelihood for the development of either El Niño (wet Southwest winter) or La Niña (dry Southwest winter).
The Bottom Line – Hydrological drought is expected to persist in most of the Southwest through the summer. There is no drought-ending “silver-bullet” on the horizon.