The University of Arizona

NM Climate Division 6: Climate Reconstruction | CLIMAS

NM Climate Division 6: Climate Reconstruction

Single-Year Reconstruction and Extremes

The graph below shows the cool season (November-April) precipitation reconstruction for New Mexico climate division 6. Values are expressed as a percentage of 1000-1988 average precipitation. The adjusted 2006 and 1950 averages, the two driest years during the dry periods of the 1950s and 2000s, are plotted in orange and red, respectively, for comparison. As the reconstruction shows, many years in the past thousand years were drier than 2006.

R2 = 40%

View calibration/verification data

Reconstructed Average (1000-1988) = 142 mm

Instrumental Average (1896-2010) = 130 mm

 

Driest Year Wettest Year
Year Precipitation (mm) Percent Average Year Precipitaton (mm) Percent Average
1668 33.1 22.7 1353 290.3 199.0
1091 39.4 27.0 1816 281.1 192.7
1224 40.5 27.8 1618 274.7 188.3
1085 44.3 30.3 1555 169.7 184.9
1168 46.3 31.7 1109 266.9 183.0

Multi-Year Reconstructions and Extremes

The graph below shows the five-year average precipitation reconstruction for New Mexico climate division 6; values are expressed as a percentage of 1000-1988 average precipitation. The adjusted 1953-1957 and 2006-2010 averages for this climate division are provided for comparison (orange and red lines, respectively). Several extended dry periods stand out, particularly the late 1000s-early 1100s, late 1200s, early 1300s, late 1500s, late-1700s, and the mid-1900s.

 

  

R2 = 40%
View calibration/verification data

5-Year Reconstructed Average (1000-1988) = 142 mm/yr; 710 mm/5-yr

5-Year Instrumental Average (1896-2010) = 130 mm/yr; 650 mm/5-yr

Driest Five-year Period Wettest Five-year Period
Years Precipitation (mm) Percent Average Years Precipitation (mm) Percent Average
1779-1783 384.2 54.1 1814-1818 1210.5 170.6
1664-1668 405.7 57.2 1701-1705 1140.0 160.6
1090-1094 426.8 60.1 1553-1557 1139.0 160.5
1251-1255 436.3 61.5 1617-1621 1105.4 155.7
1876-1880 458.9 64.7 1333-1337 1104.7 155.7

 

Instrumental Record and Extremes

While precipitation was below average for climate division 6 (18.0%) in 2006, the instrumental record for this division shows several years that were drier.

Driest One-Year Period Wettest One-Year Period
    Year      Precipitation (mm) Percent Average      Year      Precipitation (mm) Percent Average
2006 23.4 18.0 1915 23.4 18.0
1904 27.2 21.0 1905 27.2 21.0
1950 55.1 42.5 1987 55.1 42.5
1996 60.0 46.2 1941 59.9 46.2
1967 60.2 46.4 1919 60.2 46.4
Driest Five-Year Period Wettest Five-Year Period
Year Precipitation (mm) Percent Average Year Precipitation (mm) Percent Average
1902-1906 454.4 69.8 1985-1989 903.0 138.7
1955-1959 455.9 70.0 1986-1990 879.9 135.2
1952-1956 471.7 72.5 1987-1901 874.0 134.3
1954-1958 475.2 73.0 1917-1921 857.3 131.7
1953-1957 487.4 74.9 1907-1911 840.2 129.1

Calibration and Verification Data

The graph below shows a comparison between instrumental and reconstructed November-April precipitation for New Mexico climate division 6. The graph shows good agreement between the tree-ring and instrumental records over most of the 20th century. The R2, in this case 40%, indicates the amount of variation in the instrumental precipitation record captured by tree rings. Higher R2 values indicate more reliable reconstructions.

How the Data Were Calculated

The 1000-year reconstruction of cool-season precipitation is presented as the combined neural network and linear regression reconstructions. The two separate reconstructions were combined in the following manner. If both the linear regression and neural network reconstructions were below the calibration in any given year, then the linear regression value was used. In all other instances, a simple average of the two reconstructions was used. The rationale for this approach is based on detailed analyses and the simple observation that the linear regression does a better job at capturing the drought years. The reconstructions for each division were “smoothed” using a centered 5-year running average.

These reconstructions were developed using millimeters as the measurement unit. However, it is sometimes easier to think of precipitation in terms of the percentage of the long term average. To convert these data to percentage of average each reconstructed value was simply divided by the average of the reconstruction. The same procedure was used to convert instrumental precipitation.

The threshold line for the most recent drought period was calculated by first determining the percentage of average precipitation received during the year or averaged over the last five years, then dividing by the long term averages. In the case of the five-year smoothed reconstructions the average is based on five year averages over the 1896-2010 period. Comparison of the most recent drought in the 2000s to the long term average is problematic, however, because these reconstructions only extend through 1988. In addition, tree-ring data do not match the variance contained within the instrumental data so an adjustment is needed to be made in order to make more reasonable comparisons. The 2006 value (or the 5 year average) was first adjusted relative to the 1896-1988 reference period by calculating the percentage of average over the entire period (1896-2010), then determining the value relative to only the common overlap period (1896-1988). For example, New Mexico Climate Division 6 recorded 23.4 mm of precipitation in 2006, which is 18.0% of the 1896-2010 average (130.2 mm). To put this into the context of the tree-ring reconstruction in terms of millimeters of precipitation, this value (18.0% or 0.180) was multiplied by the reconstructed average over the period 1896-1988 (141.4 mm), which yields an adjusted value of 25.4 mm.

A note about dates: while a single year or range of dates is given in the data for simplicity, cool-season precipitation estimates are for November-April. For example data listed for 2002 would actually be from November 2001 to April 2002.